Earlier this week, we told you how our crack team of election writers (Beth Parnell-Hopkinson, Jonn Elledge and Rachel Holdsworth) went to the pub and debated who we think will win in each of London's 73 constituencies. Our predictions are below, and we're going to update the results overnight as they come in.
Barking
Incumbent: Margaret Hodge, Labour
Majority: 36.5%
Our prediction: This is Labour land. Even a challenge from the BNP's Nick Griffin couldn't dent the vote in 2010 and the party's not even trying this year. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Battersea
Incumbent: Jane Ellison, Conservative
Majority: 12.2%
Our prediction: Battersea has been swinging between Labour and Conservative for the last 30 years, but we think gentrification will keep it in Tory hands for now. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Beckenham
Incumbent: Bob Stewart, Conservative
Majority: 37.3%
Our prediction: Beckenham (and Bromley) is as blue as they come — every MP they've elected since 1950 has been a Tory. Nothing's going to change now. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Incumbent: Simon Hughes, Liberal Democrat
Majority: 19.1%
Our prediction: Hmm. All polls say this is a very tight race; Hughes, who's been the MP here since 1983, acknowledges it himself. We argued at length about this one — whether the incumbency effect will be enough to save the Lib Dem. In the end, we think, perhaps not. Labour is throwing everything they have at Bermondsey, and the swing may be too much to withstand. Labour gain
Result: Labour gain
Bethnal Green and Bow
Incumbent: Rushanara Ali, Labour
Majority: 22.8%
Our prediction: Ali, who won this seat back from Respect after a party split and George Galloway choosing to stand in neighbouring Poplar and Limehouse, doesn't face a threat from anyone. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Bexleyheath and Crayford
Incumbent: David Evennett, Conservative
Majority: 24%
Our prediction: UKIP has three councillors in Bexley, two of them in wards that make up this constituency. This is only going to go one way though, and it's a Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Brent Central
Previous: Sarah Teather (standing down), Liberal Democrat
Majority: 3%
Our prediction: Had Sarah Teather stayed, she could have had been in with a fighting chance as she's been an outspoken critic of the coalition government — though that obviously has made it hard for her to stay in the party. Labour will re-take this seat easily. Labour gain
Result: Labour gain
Brent North
Incumbent: Barry Gardiner, Labour
Majority: 15.4%
Our prediction: An easy hold for Gardiner, who's been the MP here since 1997 when he took it from Rhodes Boyson (he of the ridiculous mutton chops and, nowadays, paedophilia allegations). Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Brentford and Isleworth
Incumbent: Mary Macleod
Majority: 3.6%
Our prediction: All polls indicate a resounding swing back to Labour after a narrow Tory victory in 2010, with the delicious sounding Ruth Cadbury standing ready to gain. Labour gain
Result: Labour gain
Bromley and Chislehurst
Incumbent: Bob Neill, Conservative
Majority: 31.6%
Our prediction: It's relentlessly middle class round here, which means another five years for Neill, basically. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Camberwell and Peckham
Incumbent: Harriet Harman, Labour
Majority: 36.8%
Our prediction: One of the safest Labour seats in London, Harman will be back at Westminster no problem — pink bus or no pink bus. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Carshalton and Wallington
Incumbent: Tom Brake, Liberal Democrat
Majority: 11.5%
Our prediction: The borough of Sutton seems pretty happy with its Lib Dem council, and an Ashcroft poll implies that whatever threat the Tories may have been in 2010, UKIP is eating into the blue vote. Liberal Democrat hold
Result: Lib Dem hold
Chelsea and Fulham
Incumbent: Greg Hands, Conservative
Majority: 42%
Our prediction: Oh, come on. It's Chelsea and Fulham. Of course it's going to be a Conservative hold
Result: Labour ga — nah, we're kidding. Conservative hold
Chingford and Woodford Green
Incumbent: Iain Duncan Smith, Conservative
Majority: 30.1%
Our prediction: Amusing though it would be for a Portillo-style calamity to befall the man who presided over repeated calamities at the Department of Work and Pensions in recent years, we can't see it happening. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Chipping Barnet
Incumbent: Theresa Villiers, Conservative
Majority: 23.6%
Our prediction: Villiers, distantly related to the Duke that gave his name to various alleyways near Charing Cross, isn't going to have any difficulties here. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Cities of London and Westminster
Incumbent: Mark Field, Conservative
Majority: 30%
Our prediction: Without the excitement of the drummer from Blur standing in opposition this time, all there's really left to say is Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Croydon Central
Incumbent: Gavin Barwell, Conservative
Majority: 5.9%
Our prediction: Labour took Croydon Council in 2014, Barwell has a fairly thin majority and Ashcroft polls are see-sawing all over the place. It's a tough call, but this is the kind of seat Labour needs to win to have any chance of getting back in government. We think they'll do it. Labour gain
Result: Conservative hold
Croydon North
Incumbent: Steve Reed, Labour
Majority: 47.9%
Our prediction: Reed won the seat in a 2012 by-election following the death of previous Labour MP, Malcolm Wicks. He won't have any problems holding on in his first general election. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Croydon South
Previous: Richard Ottaway (standing down), Conservative
Majority: 28.1%
Our prediction: Chris Philp, who was the Tory candidate in that narrow Hampstead and Kilburn battle in 2010, won't need to worry about three-way marginals in this safe seat. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Dagenham and Rainham
Incumbent: Jon Cruddas, Labour
Majority: 5.9%
Our prediction: The BNP took a mighty chunk of votes here in 2010 but will be scrapping the English Democrats and — to an extent — UKIP for its own diminished vote this year. Cruddas will probably extend his majority, to be honest. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Dulwich and West Norwood
Previous: Tessa Jowell (standing down), Labour
Majority: 19.4%
Our prediction: Even with Jowell off to try and become London Mayor, we can't imagine anything derailing the Labour train to prevent Helen Hayes becoming the next MP. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Ealing Central and Acton
Incumbent: Angie Bray, Conservative
Majority: 7.9%
Our prediction: It's a busy ballot in Ealing Central and Acton, with even a party campaigning solely for a 'none of the above' option for voters. The real business is the fight between Labour and the Tories, with Labour's Rupa Huq expected to be victorious. Another of those bellwether seats that should tell us which party is having a good night. Labour gain
Result: Labour gain
Ealing North
Incumbent: Stephen Pound, Labour
Majority: 19.5%
Our prediction: Ealing North has tended to go the way of whichever government gets in, breaking that tradition in 2010. Perhaps this time? Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Ealing Southall
Incumbent: Virendra Sharma, Labour
Majority: 21.7%
Our prediction: Ealing Southall hasn't voted anything but Labour for half a century; it's not going to change its mind now. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
East Ham
Incumbent: Stephen Timms, Labour
Majority: 55.2%
Our prediction: This is the seat with the largest majority anywhere in London. What do you think is going to happen? Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Edmonton
Previous: Andy Love (standing down), Labour Co-op
Majority: 23.8%
Our prediction: Bit worrying we're less than halfway through the list and running out of ways to say 'safe seat'. This is a safe seat. Expect to see Kate Osamor in parliament soon. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Eltham
Incumbent: Clive Efford, Labour
Majority: 4%
Our prediction: That might not look like a big majority, but polling wisdom suggests Efford is safe and will increase his margin. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Enfield North
Incumbent: Nick de Bois, Conservative
Majority: 3.8%
Our prediction: The Tories 'took' this seat from Labour in 2010, though boundary changes had meant that was expected. However, demographic shifts — there's been a 121% increase in people renting since 2001, for example — mean Enfield North is likely to turn red this time. Labour gain
Result: Labour gain
Enfield Southgate
Incumbent: David Burrowes, Conservative
Majority: 17.2%
Our prediction: Michael Portillo's old seat, snaffled by Labour in 1997, returned to the Tories in 2005 and isn't going anywhere now. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Erith and Thamesmead
Incumbent: Teresa Pearce, Labour
Majority: 13.4%
Our prediction: Boundary changes in 2010 brought more Tory voters into the constituency, but still not enough to threaten Labour's position. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Feltham and Heston
Incumbent: Seema Malhotra, Labour
Majority: 26.7%
Our prediction: Malhotra was returned to Westminster in a 2011 by-election following the death of Alan Keen, who won with a majority of 9.6% in 2010. Expect a majority somewhere near by-election figures this time. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Finchley and Golders Green
Incumbent: Mike Freer, Conservative
Majority: 12.3%
Our prediction: Another extremely tight one. A recent Ashcroft poll showed Labour two points ahead, but Finchley and Golders Green is marginal suburbia, i.e., intrinsically more small-c conservative. Could go either way, but we're calling it for the Tories. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Greenwich and Woolwich
Previous: Nick Raynsford (stepping down), Labour
Majority: 24.7%
Our prediction: Raynsford is standing down (he's 70, after all), but this should be a safe stepping stone into parliament for Greenwich councillor Matthew Pennycook. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Hackney North and Stoke Newington
Incumbent: Diane Abbott, Labour
Majority: 31.1%
Our prediction: The Communist League has a candidate standing here, but that won't dent Abbott's victory. Voters may like to know what she'll do if she achieves her ambition to be Mayor of London, though. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Hackney South and Shoreditch
Incumbent: Meg Hillier, Labour
Majority: 31.6%
Our prediction: There are — count 'em — 11 people standing in Hackney South. That's an awful lot of lost deposits when Hillier inevitably sweeps back into Westminster. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Hammersmith
Incumbent: Andy Slaughter, Labour
Majority: 7.5%
Our prediction: Labour has been slowly taking over Hammersmith, with its capture of the council last year. Slaughter shouldn't have a problem. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Hampstead and Kilburn
Previous: Glenda Jackson (standing down), Labour
Majority: 0.1% (42 votes)
Our prediction: This was a three-way tie in 2010, and some polls are still calling it that way. We don't know why; Ashcroft polls have been showing a collapse in the Lib Dem support for some time, which is benefiting Labour. Even the Tories don't have it as a target seat. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold. Told you.
Harrow East
Incumbent: Bob Blackman, Conservative
Majority: 7.1%
Our prediction: The latest Ashcroft poll shows a shift towards Labour candidate Uma Kumaran in Harrow; we agree Bob Blackman is likely to be a one-term MP. Labour gain
Result: Conservative hold
Harrow West
Incumbent: Gareth Thomas, Labour
Majority: 6.8%
Our prediction: This was the safest Tory seat won by Labour in 1997; recent years have seen a narrowing of the red-blue gap, but Labour actually slightly increased the margin in 2010. Fairly safe. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Hayes and Harlington
Incumbent: John McDonnell, Labour
Majority: 25.4%
Our prediction: This is where you find Heathrow airport; John McDonnell once outraged Parliamentary protocol by moving the ceremonial mace to protest at the lack of a decision about a third runway. This is the most interesting thing we can think of to say about Hayes and Harlington. Sorry. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Hendon
Incumbent: Matthew Offord, Conservative
Majority: 0.2%
Our prediction: Hendon is such a fascinating — and metaphorically symbolic of the whole of London — seat that we did a whole piece about it. There were 106 votes in it last time; will it be as tight again? No. The general backlash against the Tories in Barnet will take Andrew Dismore back to Westminster. Labour gain
Result: Conservative hold
Holborn and St Pancras
Previous: Frank Dobson (stepping down), Labour
Majority: 17.9%
Our prediction: This is where Green leader Natalie Bennett is standing (read our interview with her). Not that she's going to be elected, mind; Keir Starmer has it all sewn up. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Hornchurch and Upminster
Incumbent: Angela Watkinson, Conservative
Majority: 30.7%
Our prediction: Despite UKIP having seven councillors on Havering Council, they won't make inroads here. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Hornsey and Wood Green
Incumbent: Lynne Featherstone, Liberal Democrat
Majority: 12.5%
Our prediction: Despite insisting that the Lib Dems are making a comeback after a disastrous Ashcroft poll in September, Featherstone has neither a successful Lib Dem council behind her, like in Sutton, or a particularly long track record. She's very vulnerable to Labour, and we think she's outta here. Labour gain
Result: Labour gain
Ilford North
Incumbent: Lee Scott, Conservative
Majority: 11.5%
Our prediction: We hear on the grapevine that Labour are feeling bullish about taking Ilford North; apparently it's down to the housing crisis pushing people on low incomes out of more central, typically Labour areas and into places like Redbridge. We don't think they're quite there, yet, though. If the seat does go red, you'll know Labour are on for a cracking night. Conservative hold
Result: Labour gain
Ilford South
Incumbent: Michael Gapes, Labour Co-op
Majority: 22.1%
Our prediction: Gapes has been the MP round these parts since 1992 and he's not going anywhere. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Islington North
Incumbent: Jeremy Corbyn, Labour
Majority: 27.8%
Our prediction: Ah, Jeremy Corbyn, the leftie's leftie. He's represented Islington North since 1983; Labour could announce an immediate cull of all kittens and Corbyn would still win an election based on his personal appeal. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Islington South and Finsbury
Incumbent: Emily Thornberry, Labour
Majority: 8.2%
Our prediction: Thornberry had to resign her shadow cabinet position after tweeting a photo deemed to be snobbish about white van drivers. And yet Grant Shapps remains Conservative Party chairman. Politics is weird. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Kensington
Previous: Malcolm Rifkind (standing down), Conservative
Majority: 24.5%
Our prediction: Rifkind resigned the seat after a controversy over 'cash for access'; the Tories swiftly appointed Westminster councillor, London Assembly member, ex-Deputy Mayor and general sensible person Victoria Borwick as their candidate. She'll do very well when she's inevitably elected. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Kingston and Surbiton
Incumbent: Edward Davey, Liberal Democrat
Majority: 13.2%
Our prediction: Though the Lib Dems lost Kingston council last year, Ed Davey's been around long enough (since 1997) to overcome the taint of coalition (he became Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change in 2012). Keep an eye on this one; if Davey loses, then the Lib Dems are having a shocker. Liberal Democrat hold
Result: Conservative gain.
Lewisham Deptford
Previous: Joan Ruddock (standing down), Labour
Majority: 30.3%
Our prediction: They weigh the Labour votes in Lewisham instead of counting them. (They don't really do that; it would very much be against Electoral Commission rules.) However, it does mean a fairly easy win for Ruddock's replacement, former Lewisham councillor Vicky Foxcroft. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Lewisham East
Incumbent: Heidi Alexander, Labour
Majority: 14.9%
Our prediction: Even if this wasn't a pretty safe seat, Alexander has proved to be very popular locally since being first returned in 2010 and we expect her to increase her majority. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Lewisham West and Penge
Incumbent: Jim Dowd, Labour
Majority: 12.9%
Our prediction: God, we love Penge. It's right up there with Cockfosters. This has nothing to do with the constituency, of course, which will return Jim Dowd because he's Labour and this is Lewisham. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Leyton and Wanstead
Incumbent: John Cryer, Labour
Majority: 16%
Our prediction: This seat has been Labour since its creation in 1997, though an initial majority of 38.6% has slowly been coming down. Expect to see it spring back up this year. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Mitcham and Morden
Incumbent: Siobhain McDonagh, Labour
Majority: 31.2%
Our prediction: A mix of suburbia and more metropolitan bits of Streatham and Tooting, Mitcham and Morden has been about as solid Labour as it comes since 1997. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Old Bexley and Sidcup
Incumbent: James Brokenshire, Conservative
Majority: 34.9%
Our prediction: Brokenshire took over the mantle of Minister for Security and Immigration in 2014, probably one of the most poisoned chalices in government. He'll return to parliament without a hitch; whether it's to government remains to be seen. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Orpington
Incumbent: Jo Johnson, Conservative
Majority: 35.2%
Our prediction: Couldn't be more safely Tory, which means Boris gets to join his little brother in Westminster. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Poplar and Limehouse
Incumbent: Jim Fiztpatrick, Labour
Majority: 12.9%
Our prediction: With Canary Wharf and some of the poorest bits of Tower Hamlets, this is a real mixed bag of a seat. Though if the one-man publicity machine that is George Galloway couldn't defeat Labour here in 2010, nobody can. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Putney
Incumbent: Justine Greening, Conservative
Majority: 24.6%
Our prediction: No problem for the Secretary of State for International Development here. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Richmond Park
Incumbent: Zac Goldsmith, Conservative
Majority: 6.9%
Our prediction: He may have snaffled the seat away from the Lib Dems in 2010, but Goldsmith has proved himself an outspoken opponent of Heathrow expansion, which has doubtless gained him fans in the constituency (it gets a fair amount of aircraft noise). Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Romford
Incumbent: Andrew Rosindell, Conservative
Majority: 36.5%
Our prediction: The parallel universe does not exist where Romford returns anything other than a Conservative candidate this time around. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner
Incumbent: Nick Hurd, Conservative
Majority: 38%
Our prediction: This is the apogee of affluent, middle class suburbia and very safe Tory. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Streatham
Incumbent: Chuka Umunna, Labour
Majority: 7%
Our prediction: Despite the attractions of Artificial Beast from the Cannabis is Safer Than Alcohol party, we're confident Streathamites will return Labour's rising star. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Sutton and Cheam
Incumbent: Paul Burstow, Liberal Democrats
Majority: 3.3%
Our prediction: We were genuinely impressed by the reaction of locals to Paul Burstow when we joined him on the campaign trail. A popular Lib Dem council and apparent defections of Tory voters to UKIP should see him returned. Liberal Democrat hold
Result: Conservative gain
Tooting
Incumbent: Sadiq Khan, Labour
Majority: 5%
Our prediction: If you're the Shadow Minister for London it'd very embarrassing to lose your seat. Good thing that won't happen, then. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Tottenham
Incumbent: David Lammy, Labour
Majority: 41.6%
Our prediction: An easy win for Lammy, whose eye is also fixed on the London mayoralty. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Twickenham
Incumbent: Vince Cable, Liberal Democrat
Majority: 20.3%
Our prediction: Once considered the only man in Britain who knew what to do about the economy, that reputation may have taken a battering during the coalition. He should survive but, as with Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham's a bellwether. If Cable goes, it signifies a Lib Dem bloodbath. Liberal Democrat hold
Result: Conservative gain
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Previous: John Randall (standing down), Conservative
Majority: 24.9%
Our prediction: Will Boris Johnson make it back to Parliament? Of course he bloody will. (Note also the presence of candidates from the Monster Raving Loony Party and The Eccentric Party of Great Britain. Wouldn't be trying to pass comment on the blond one, would they?) Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
Vauxhall
Incumbent: Kate Hoey, Labour
Majority: 24.7%
Our prediction: Wow, Vauxhall's attracting some — shall we say — interesting candidates. You can vote Whig, Pirate or Cannabis is Safer Than Alcohol. Most people will vote Labour, though. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Walthamstow
Incumbent: Stella Creasy, Labour Co-op
Majority: 23.1%
Our prediction: Campaigns against payday loans and a refusal to take any crap from Twitter misogynists have turned Creasy into something of a political crush for both genders. She'd win here anyway; it's that kind of seat. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
West Ham
Incumbent: Lyn Brown, Labour
Majority: 48%
Our prediction: You know that old joke about you could stick a rosette on a pig and it'd win in certain areas? Absolutely nothing personal against Brown, but West Ham is one of those areas. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Westminster North
Incumbent: Karen Buck, Labour
Majority: 5.4%
Our prediction: The same source that told us Labour are confident of taking Ilford North because of demographic changes brought on by the housing crisis says the party's also worried about losing Westminster North — same reason, different direction of travel. Again, we're not sure the effect is big enough yet. Labour hold
Result: Labour hold
Wimbledon
Incumbent: Stephen Hammond, Conservative
Majority: 24.1%
Our prediction: That's it. We don't need to come up with any more ways of describing something as a safe seat. This is a safe seat. That will do. Conservative hold
Result: Conservative hold
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