The traditional London black cab could be extinct within 20 years, new research suggests.
If the number of taxis in London continues to fall at its current rate, London's roads will be black cab-less by 2045. That's the claim in a report from non-profit think tank Centre for London, working with taxi app FreeNow.
In 2013-14, says the report, 22,810 taxis were licensed to operate on London's roads. This fell by over a third (34.5%) over the 10 years to 2023-24. Today, there are 14,470 registered black cabs in London, with only 104 licences issued to new drivers in 2024.
What's caused the drop-off? The new electric cabs aren't cheap — clocking in at a little under £70k new — which has led to a a 39% increase in upfront costs since 2017, when they were introduced. What's more, says Centre for London, incentives for would-be cabbies are falling by the wayside, with TfL's scrappage scheme — offering cabbies £10,000 to scrap old vehicles which weren't low-emission zone complaint — ending in 2022; and the Department for Transport's Plug-in Taxi Grant of £7,500 disappearing next year. "This means from 2017 to 2026," says Centre for London, "the grant support available for purchasing a new taxi will have gone from £17,500 to £0."
Among the fixes for what it sees as a looming crisis, Centre for London suggests a new interest-free loan scheme for newly-qualified drivers. It also urges reform of the infamous 'Knowledge' test, to tackle the current 66% drop-out rate of trainee cabbies (we take 'reform' to mean 'make easier').
Says Antonia Jennings, CEO of Centre for London: "Black Cabs are a fundamental part of London’s cityscape. We must not let them become part of the capital’s history. Alongside their cultural status, cabs offer what Londoners need today — accessible, convenient and safe transport. We should not be removing these options off the street."
Though the Centre for London report is newly-released, concern for the future of the black cab has been brewing for a while. Last November the London Assembly urged the Mayor of London to introduce a plan "as soon as possible". Other outlets, including Business Matters, suggest that black cabs might in fact vanish from London's roads as early as 2040.
Something that hasn't been flagged in the report (or its press release, at least) is the cost of black cabs to passengers. With a two-mile journey clocking up a fare in the region of £20, black cabs are not a mode of transport that many Londoners would consider using, barring exceptional circumstances. As it stands, however, it seems customer demand has not been dampened. It helps that the likes of Uber and Bolt are not as thrifty as they once were.
